Monday, April 6, 2020

COVID-19: An overview of Disease Determinants

COVID-19: An overview of Disease Determinants

Relapses after getting cured of COVID19 in South Korea (https://www.livemint.com/https://www.msn.com/en-in/health/familyhealth/what-can-cause-a-covid-19-patient-to-relapse-after-recovery/ar-BB11SH7Lindicated that:
1. Either cure was falsely diagnosed (due to false negativity of the available tests) or
2. People do not develop immunity on COVID19 infection due to poor or non-immunogenicity of virus (hope for herd immunity to work get bleak) or


3. There are two or more serologically different COVID19 viruses in circulation, or

4. The defective immune system of cases relapsed, or
5. Just like typhoid, immunity for COVID19 is not protected from pathogenesis and may be protected from reinfection, or
6. Just like FMD carriers those may some times get sick but can rarely be detected by conventional ways, or
7. Recombination(s) of virus (non-homologous) might have started. It would be more dangerous and deadlier, or
8. During the first phase of the disease, the virus might have localised somewhere (probably at non-predilection sites) and after the withdrawal of treatment, it might have moved again to make you sick,  or
9. In some persons the virus persists for a longer period – may be several weeks- resulting in a positive test even after several weeks, or
10. False-positive both the times or second time or


Any more explanation the learned body of scientists may offer.

More the load of travellers in a country more the Disease is.

Population density is only a minor player in the spread of COVID-19
Mandatory childhood BCG vaccination and median age of the population are two important determinants of morbidity and mortality due to COVID-19.
The correlation analysis revealed that COVID-19 morbidity and mortality have several other minor determinants.



Age of affected people with COVID19 in India is much different than in other parts of the world


The ethnic origin of people may be an important determining of mortality as observed in the USA.




Source:
https://twitter.com/DrTomFrieden/status/1248037325814337537/photo/1


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