Impact of COVID-19 Vaccination on COVID-19 Cases and Deaths

 

Impact of COVID-19 Vaccination on COVID-19 Cases and Deaths

In the present analysis of data available for 208 countries with reference to a number of COVID-19 cases, deaths, population, etc. (https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus) and vaccination (https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/covid-vaccine-tracker-global-distribution/) was used to calculate the impact of vaccination using correlation and multiple regression techniques. The analysis of correlation was also narrowed down for the 28 countries all having populations of  ≥50 million (Tab. 1). Though there may be several variables and confounders directly or indirectly affecting occurrence, spread, morbidity, and mortality of COVID-19^1-3 a successful vaccine and vaccination program is one which is little affected by regional or local, ethnic, and nonethnic, host and agent variables^4-6. Successful eradication and control of several diseases including Polio, Smallpox, Rinderpest, and to some extent FMD and Brucellosis⁷. However, varying stands of National and International Health Agencies and Organizations indicated the mysteriousness⁸ of COVID-19 and maniac attitude of the system towards the diseases which also affect powerful and mighty people and nations⁹. Further, the Pharmacopolitical motives might have restricted scientists in understanding the therapeutics, pathology, and control of the disease to a great extent. The genetically modified vaccines developed through ill-tested and never before approved technologies with the human genome, the potential of inducing several life-threatening complications and probable mutations in germ cells with unknown dangers have been used for mass vaccination of global population¹⁰. Nobody knows or is not educated about the spread of disease and many false assumptions¹¹ have been circulated, most probably intended to benefit a few big pharmaceuticals. Till 2019 the world health agencies were skeptical in permitting GM food production and consumption but suddenly the whole world has been inoculated with leaky GM vaccines with unknown efficacy and questionable safety converting vaccinated people to become super-spreaders (https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/news/national/mass-vaccinations-may-turn-super-spreaders-warn-kerala-docs/article35695823.ece) of the disease, the reasons might be known to the world health leaders.

The vaccines for protecting from the COVID-19 in the world are leaky, i.e., they neither protect from getting infection nor they provide enough immunity to halt virus multiplication in the host body is associated with several vaccination-associated disorders making people not only sick but also inducing life-threatening complications (https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/vaccines/expect/after.html; https://www.who.int/news-room/q-a-detail/coronavirus-disease-(covid-19)-vaccines-safety; https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/vaccines/safety/myocarditis.html; https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(21)00467-9/fulltext)

The analysis of online available data (1St September 2021) on vaccination in different countries and prevalence and incidence of COVID-19 revealed that instead of reducing the incidence of COVID-19 and mortality the vaccines in most of the countries are increasing the disease occurrence and deaths due to it. The increasing rate of the vaccinated population is having a positive impact on the increase in an absolute number of COVID cases and deaths in statistically highly significant (p, ≤0.02) figures. The level of association between vaccination percentage and increased number of COVID cases per million and deaths per million is very strong (Tab. 2) in most of the countries irrespective of the effect of population. However, a dilemma is the low incidence and low mortality of the disease in China, one of the highly vaccinated nations. In China, the vaccine used is a whole virus-killed vaccine (Sinopharm). Are killed vaccines more effective than the vaccines developed using modern biotechnology tools? The limited data on the simultaneous use of different vaccines along with breakout cases and deaths in each group is highly variable and not available in retrievable format in the public domain. In India, three vaccines (Oxford AstraZeneca CoviShield, Covaxin, and Sputnik-V) have been used at different levels of vaccination in different states and Union territories (https://data.covid19india.org/). The data analysis (Tab. 3) revealed that more use of Covaxin (a killed vaccine similar to that of Sinopharm used in China) was associated with decreased incidence of cases and deaths while the use of CoviShield was associated with an increased incidence of cases and deaths in the respective state.

The analysis suggested that except for the killed vaccines, the use of COVID-19 vaccines is not only associated with adverse vaccine reactions but also with a significant increase in COVID-19 incidence and deaths due to COVID-19 in August 2021. The analysis may be criticized because of not excluding so many other confounders affecting the outcome of vaccination, but the vaccines, efficacy of which is affected with confounders, are almost useless and go to the dust with time or remain as useful as Flu-Shots, only with limited and local use. Thus, there is an urgent need for research in therapeutics and also towards the development of more effective vaccines. Though personally, I am skeptical of the vaccine efficacy due to inherent short-lived immunity after vaccination as well as after natural infection.

The analysis further shattered the hopes from much-expected Herd-Immunity (>70% vaccination), as even after achieving the magic figure and much more, emerging mutants (as Delta and Mu; either under the effect of partial vaccination or global presence of the disease have evaded all kinds of immunity faultily measured by antibody response.

Indian Data: Is #COVID-19 Vaccination (16th September 2021) increasing the risk of faster spread of COVID-19? Data analysis from different Indian states indicated that more Covid-19 vaccination is associated with an increased number of cases and an increased number of deaths per million people by Covid-19. Though CFR in the most (>20%) fully vaccinated states in India in August-September 2021 is less than in the least (<8% fully) vaccinated states, total Covid-19 cases & deaths were 2.9 & 1.8 times higher in more vaccinated states than in less vaccinated states, i.e., Covid-19 vaccination is increasing the risk of spread of COVID-19. How is it possible? Probably vaccinated people are getting careless and the leaky vaccine making them infected without symptoms and they are acting as super-spreaders of diseases or Covid-19 vaccine is assisting the SARSCOV-2 virus in an undefined way to cause more disease.

References

1.      Bhoj R. Singh et al. Epidemiological Determinants of Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus-2 Disease Pandemic and The Role of the Bacille-Calmette-Guerin Vaccine in Reducing Morbidity and Mortality. Journal of Pure and Applied Microbiology 2020(14):6224. DOI: 10.22207/JPAM.14.SPL1.39.

2.      Bhoj R. Singh et al. Are BCG Vaccination, Population Density, Median Age and Poverty Important Determinants of COVID-19 Pandemic Spread, Morbidity and Mortality? DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.21116.49282.

3.      Bhoj R. Singh. Changing Relations of COVID-19 Morbidity, Mortality, and CFR with the World. DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.17870.89925/2.

4.      Bhoj R. Singh., et al. Pros and Cons of Covid-19 vaccines and vaccination DOI:10.12032/IDR2021B0207001

5.      Bhoj R. Singh., et al. COVID-19 Vaccines and Community Immunity. Infectious Diseases: Research and Treatment 2(1):5. DOI: 10.12032/IDR2021B0207001

6.      Bhoj R. Singh. Epidemiology of COVID-19 Pandemic and its Control strategies. DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.22268.28808/1

7.      Bhoj R. Singh., et al. “Science Behind Non-spreading of COVID-19 During and After Political Rallies". Acta Scientific Pharmacology 2.6 (2021):10-16.

8.      Bhoj R. Singh. The COVID-19: A Mystery Disease. DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.19214.89921

9.      Bhoj R. Singh. “COVID Mania and Truth of Life". Acta Scientific Pharmacology 1.9 (2020): 41-42.

10.   Bhoj R. Singh. Why sceptical of recommending the use of COVID-19 vaccines in the reproductive age? DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.24405.14565/1.

11.   Bhoj R. Singh. The Unwinding of the Second COVID-19 Wave in India. DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.28062.25920