Friday, March 27, 2020

Where is WHO and where are Global leaders to think about the reality of COVID-19?


Where is WHO and where are Global leaders to think about the reality of COVID-19?
Is total Lockdown a wise way to control COVID-19
Social distancing may be economically more detrimental to control COVID-19 or any disease with high contagiousness and low severity.
"If a disease is very highly infectious, social distancing may have no effect or may require an unfeasibly high degree of caution in order to be effective. In these cases, doing nothing will be a more cost-effective strategy than using social distancing, because the worst-case outcome arises if the control is applied, but the level of caution used is too weak."
(https://bmcpublichealth.biomedcentral.com/track/pdf/10.1186/1471-2458-12-679 )

COVID-19 is at the most can be classified as a disease of moderate severity and--
"For moderate severity diseases, however, it became most cost-effective to implement no intervention and allow the disease to run its course".

What is the way out of COVID19 Emergency?
Epidemiologically the only successful policy of TTTI (Trace, Test, Treat and Isolate) may help to win over COVID-19. Controlling COVID19 through Lockdown is going to be a serious mistake for many of the democratic countries (under current circumstances of chaos and uneducated democratic settings) and we have to pay dearly (socioeconomically). Though time is out for Europe and the US but for some countries like India time is still there to adopt TTTI. Isolate the susceptible for serious disease outcome (aged, with an underlying disease, immune disorders, pregnants) and isolate the exposed and treated too.

Is COVID-19 a real natural or created outbreak? Is it a disease or a tactic to make you a beggar? Is it a real disease or a disease of diagnosis?
https://brs1762.in/2020/03/27/where-is-who-and-where-are-global-leaders-to-think-about-the-reality-of-kovid-19/
Tuberculosis (TB) is curable and preventable but in India alone there are 130,000 TB cases not treatable due to total drug resistance. There is also no vaccine which can prevent infection of TB. Tuberculosis also spread through contact, coughs and is a highly contagious zoonosis affecting a large number of animals too. The TB patient keeps on spreading disease for an indefinite time or his or her lifelong. Tuberculosis, a disease of poor and poverty, kills 1.5 million people worldwide and TB is one of the top 10 causes of death and the leading cause of death due to a single infectious agent. In 2018, an estimated 10 million people fell ill with tuberculosis (TB) worldwide including 5.7 million men, 3.2 million women and 1.1 million children (https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/tuberculosis). Every year almost 6.4 million new TB cases are recorded. (https://www.who.int/gho/tb/epidemic/cases_deaths/en/). In India, every year 440,000 i.e., 1205 people daily (more than 50 per hour) die due to TB (https://tbfacts.org/tb-statistics-india/), a dangerous zoonotic and communicable contagious disease, but nobody cares and brings India to halt or lockdown. Rather, every day millions of TB patients travel across the country, some times on concessional tickets, in public transport in India since ages distributing the disease with dignity and proud but nobody cares. 
In India, every year more than 230,000 people i.e., 630 daily (more than 26 per hour) commit suicide due to one or other reason (https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/politics-and-nation/coronavirus-india-must-do-more-genomic-sequencing-to-enable-faster-decision-making/articleshow/74799884.cms), but no one cared. No one thinks why they die. Among those suicide, more than 75% are young people (future of India). There is no vaccine and no treatment for suicide also. Without being contagious, suicide is one of the biggest killers. Why the WHO and governments fail to prevent it.
Again in India, roughly around 17 accident-related deaths occur across India every hour i.e., 150,000 per year (https://www.statista.com/statistics/746887/india-number-of-fatalities-in-road-accidents/) but we never cared, why? Why our roads are more prone to accidents, why we don’t have enough cops to make people obey rules.
COVID-19 in last three months killed about 24000 people i.e., 11 per hour, it has no vaccine and drug and it is also a fact that diagnosis is only having 65% positive predictive value i.e., if you are sick with flu-like sickness and diagnosed positive for COVID-19 there are only 65% chances that you really have the disease (https://www.mdmag.com/medical-news/comparing-rt-pcr-and-chest-ct-for-diagnosing-covid19). In an active screening done on isolation/ quarantine centres the positive predictive value is reported less than 20% (https://www.mdmag.com/medical-news/comparing-rt-pcr-and-chest-ct-for-diagnosing-covid19) that is there are 80% chances that you may be declared false positive without having the disease. Why and Why are we worried so much about COVID-19 which may infect hardly 1% people (13,00,000 in India) to have symptoms and less than 0.1% need hospitalization (130,000) and of which 10% (i.e., 13000) may die and out of those dying, more than 90% will be of more than 60 years of age, mostly non-productive and already sick with one or other disease. For those 13000 aged and a non-productive and already diseased lot, we are ready to kill our economy making millions of people to commit suicide and many millions to die of hunger in the coming months. Why and on what ground? Or we are working for someone else interested in declaring a million people positive while in the true sense only 200K is positive for rarely lethal infection to keep us all idle and non-productive in lockdown for an indefinite time, may be stretched to several months, so that after a few months we can stand in the line of beggars.
Are WHO and Bill Gates Game changer or Game Players or Villains of COVID 19?
WHO offered a bribe to poison COVID-19 patients in Madagascar, and Bill Gates tried to bribe in Nigeria to get his vaccine used in whole Nigeria. https://greatgameindia.com/who-offered-20m-bribe-to-poison-covid-19-cure-madagascar-president/

WHO lied again, said BCG had no effect on COVID (https://www.who.int/news-room/commentaries/detail/bacille-calmette-gu%C3%A9rin-(bcg)-vaccination-and-covid-19?fbclid=IwAR3PKUW5FCs7d1D0dQ8jgFdH_26jK_pYYDNMifQP9rS6-RoEG6oYP3ffUAA). As on 14 April 2020, Countries Non-mandated BCG vaccination have 162.5 times more odds (CI, 20.70-1275.75, p, 0.01) of having COVID-19 >500 cases/Million than countries mandating BCG vaccination & Countries Non-mandated BCG vaccination have 23.2 times more odds (CI, 4.46-120.71, p, 0.01) of having >50 deaths by COVID-19/Million people than countries mandating BCG vaccination.
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/340443017_Are_BCG_Vaccination_Population_Density_Median_Age_and_Poverty_Important_Determinants_of_COVID-19_Pandemic_Spread_Morbidity_and_Mortality

Who is making WHO to make false statements in the context of COVID-19 since the very first day of this Pandemic?

WHO praised Sweden for better COVID-19 management, the only country having the highest (72.53%) case fatality rate than the recovery rate in the world. What message does WHO wants to give? Let the world suicide!!!

WHO ने स्वीडन की कोविद-१९ को मैनेज करने के लिए तारीफ की है, जिसमें कोविद-१९ से मरने वालों की दर दुनिया में सबसे ज्यादा है (72.53%) WHO दुनिया को किस राह पर ले जाना चाहता है? क्या ये दुनिया वाले आत्महत्या कर लें? कौन है सच्चा कौन है झूठा यहाँ हर चेहरे पे नकाब है ये दुनिया बड़ी खराब है।
किसी चीज से डरो या मत डरो कोविड-19 से जरूर डरो
कोरोना से इटली का बहुत बुरा हाल हुआ, हर 2000 लोगों में से 3 लोग बीमार पड़ गए और जो बीमार पड़ गए उनमें से कुछ स्वर्ग धाम सिधार गए जो स्वर्ग गए उनमें से 98% से ज्यादा 65 साल से ऊपर के थे
दोस्तों COVID19 बीमारी बहुत खतरनाक है किसी को नहीं छोड़ेगी घर के अंदर ही रहना वरना सारे मारे जाओगे.
जान है तो जहान है जिंदा रहे तो भीख मांग कर भी पेट भर लोगे, गुलामी कर लोगे, दिल्ली से बिहार की पैदल यात्रा कर लोगे, और भी जाने क्या-क्या, मर गए तो क्या कर लोगे.
यह बात अलग है कि देश में 60 साल की उम्र के पार के 50 लोग हर घंटे खांसते हुए टीबी की बीमारी से जान दे देते हैं और कहावत है जिसे टीबी हो गई उसे अपने साथ लेकर ही जाती है परंतु कोविड-19 की खांसी का कोई इलाज नहीं है हो गई तो 100 में से दो-तीन की जान तो गई तो भाई किसी चीज से डरो या मत डरो कोविड-19 से जरूर डरो और घर में ही रहो.
आनंद विहार बस अड्डे पर लाखों की संख्या में भी रहोगे तो कोविड-19 भीड़ देख कर भाग जाएगा और अगर काम पर गए तो रास्ते में ही पकड़ कर खा जाएगा.
डरो भाइयों और बहनों कोविड-19 से जरूर डरो


#COVID19, #COVID #Epidemic #Pandemic #Economy

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Tuesday, March 24, 2020

Can pets carry COVID-19 virus? Should we have simultaneous quarantine of pets from owners testing positive for COVID-19?


Can pets carry COVID-19 virus? Should we have simultaneous quarantine of pets from owners testing positive for COVID-19?
https://brs1762.in/2020/03/25/covid-19-what-next/
COVID-19 turned to be true zoonosis now. There were reports that dogs, cats, and the tiger got COVID19 from their caretakers, now caretakers got the infection from minks. https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/06/coronavirus-rips-through-dutch-mink-farms-triggering-culls-prevent-human-infections

Currently, there is limited evidence-based on two dogs (one Pomeranian and other German Shepherd got infected probably from their COVID-19 positive owners) that companion animals can be infected with SARS-Cov-2. Though understanding about COVID-19 is rapidly evolving, there is no evidence that pet dogs or cats can be a source of infection to other animals or humans. (https://wsava.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/COVID-19_WSAVA-Advisory-Document-Mar-19-2020.pdf). Considering the facts of poor understanding of COVID-19 spread the CDC recommends “You should restrict contact with pets and other animals while you are sick with COVID-19, just like you would around other people. Although there have not been reports of pets or other animals becoming sick with COVID-19, it is recommended that people who are sick with COVID-19 try to limit the amount of contact they have with their pets. When possible, have another member of your household care for your animals while you are sick. If you are sick with COVID-19, limit the amount of direct contact as much as possible, including petting, snuggling, being kissed or licked, and sharing food. If you need to care for your pet or be around animals while you are sick, ensure you continue to maintain good hygiene practices, such as washing hands before and after interacting with pets and wear a facemask.” (www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019- ncov/faq.html#2019-nCoV-and-animals If my pet has been in contact with someone who is sick from COVID-19, can it spread the virus to other people?). 
The first dog in Hon Kong tested positive on 28 Feb 2020 for COVID-19, 17-year-old Pomeranian did not develop symptoms of illness after it contracted a "low-level" COVID-19 infection from its owner, a 60-year-old woman. The owner was tested positive on 25th Feb 2020 and recovered from infection 8 March 2020. The dog was quarantined from February 26 to March 14, after it finally tested negative for the virus but died on 16th March 2020. The cause of death could not be ascertained because the owner didn’t allow post-mortem (https://www.livescience.com/coronavirus-first-case-human-to-dog-transmission.html). A second pet dog, a German Shepherd was sent for quarantine along with another mixed-breed dog from the same residence in Hong Kong, repeatedly tested positive for the Covid-19 virus after its owner was confirmed as being infected. However, the mixed-breed dog remained negative all the time (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-19/second-dog-in-hong-kong-tests-positive-for-covid-19-virus).
Considering the intimacy and animal husbandry practices of India risks already felt about pet dogs in Hong Kong and advisory from CDC there is an urgent need for:
1. Quarantine for pets and other domestic animals from owners testing positive for COVID-19 virus. It is already practised in Hong Kong.
2. Repeated testing of pets and domestic animals from houses of owners tested positive for COVID-19 for the possible presence of the virus and monitoring for any possible vertical and horizontal transmission to their progeny and other pets or the in-contact humans, respectively.
3. Similar hygienic and isolation protocols for pet and domestic animals (from households having any COVID-19 positive human case) as advised for human beings at least for the time it is proven scientifically that there is no risk of transmission of COVID-19 among animals or to humans.
4. A pilot longitudinal survey at the earliest for COVID-19 virus and specific antibodies in domestic and pet animals in the areas where positive human cases are reported to determine the extent of infection level and longevity of the carriage of infection by animals.
5. Globally, infections have also been confirmed in tigers, lions, mink, snow leopards, cougars, ferrets, dogs, and domestic cats, but the fact that great apes are susceptible to the SARS-CoV-2 virus has scientists especially concerned (https://www.nationalgeographic.com/animals/article/first-great-apes-at-us-zoo-receive-coronavirus-vaccine-made-for-animals).  (Some 12,000 have died from COVID-19 on fur farms in the U.S. alone, and are believed to have transmitted the virus to humans in some cases (https://www.nationalgeographic.com/animals/article/denmark-mink-culling)
Covid-19 in big apes
 Gorillas:  https://www.nationalgeographic.com/animals/article/first-great-apes-at-us-zoo-receive-coronavirus-vaccine-made-for-animals?
 In January 2021, a troop of eight gorillas at the San Diego Zoo Safari Park became the first great apes in the world to test positive for the novel coronavirus. The silverback, 49-year-old Winston, fell ill with heart disease and pneumonia, but following experimental antibody treatment, he is recovering, as are the others. With Winston, the silverback who developed pneumonia and heart disease, including severe arrhythmia, it’s unclear if the virus exacerbated an underlying condition (heart disease is common in geriatric gorillas), or caused his symptoms. 

Diagnostic tests and their efficacy is another big problem due to their sensitivity, high-negative and high-positive predictive values.

False-positive (https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32133832/?fbclid=IwAR3LHLplRtmPZED3jt_Hjf2ZKysmDcXMU5LgVgNPcqNAtb9EzcQBKMtCIoI) can be tolerated in the wake of epidemic control, however, it increases the burden on the health care system.  The real danger is from the high negative predictive value of the current RT-PCR based test, the high number of missed cases may be vital in the fast spread of the epidemic. 
The analysis revealed that In patients with negative RT-PCR results, 75% (n = 308) had positive chest CT findings for COVID19, which means repeated testing and parallel testing is a must find real positive and real negative cases. A long road to go. Karen, the orangutan, was the first great ape to receive the vaccine, she is the one who also had the first open-heart surgery a few years back.
Minks: https://www.nationalgeographic.com/animals/article/what-the-mink-coronavirus-pandemic-has-taught-us

COVID-19 Vaccine for animals
The Virus Spike protein adjuvanted vaccine: Zoetis Pharmaceuticals developed the first COVID-19 vaccine for animals in a way similar to its human variant (Novavax). The vaccine had only been tested on cats and dogs, and recently in February 2021 in bonobos and orangutans at the San Diego Zoo. Zoetis is also conducting trials of its vaccine in mink, with plans to apply for commercial authorization once trials are complete.

The emergence of variants in animals:
The variants of SARS-CoV-2 that keep emerging aren’t just a human problem, scientists found the first evidence that dogs and cats can become infected by B.1.1.7, a recent variant of the pandemic coronavirus that transmits more readily and also appears more lethal (https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2021/03/major-coronavirus-variant-found-pets-first-time).

Therefore, it is time to develop not only better diagnostic tests but also better sampling and diagnostic protocols along with a suitable vaccine.
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Tuesday, December 24, 2019

False statistics of Department of Animal Husbandry and Dairying (DAHD, India) to bluff India and to run FMD and Brucellosis Control Program


PMO Portal for Grievance
Registration Number : DOAHD/E/2019/00555 at https://pgportal.gov.in/NewGrievance/Success
True or False Nationalism of Department of Animal Husbandry and Dairying (DAHD) under the Ministry of Fisheries, Animal Husbandry & Dairying







False statistics of DAHD to bluff India and to run FMD and Brucellosis Control Program to engulf Rs. 13,343 Crore in coming four years
As per the operational manual of Foot and Mouth Disease Control Program (FMD-CP) 2017-18 (http://www.pdfmd.ernet.in/index_files/Content/FMDCP/FMD_CP_Operational_Mannual.pdf) annual direct loss (through reduced production of milk and meat) due to FMD is about 20000 Crore and due to brucellosis is 20400 Crore (https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25835775). In 2019-20 Rs. 500 Crore funds have been allocated for FMD and Brucellosis control with the aim to complete control of FMD by 2025 with vaccination and its eventual eradication by 2030. This will result in m increased domestic production and ultimately m increased exports of milk and livestock products, and Intensive Brucellosis Control programme in animals for control of Brucellosis will result in effective management of the disease both in animals and humans. For the next 5 years, the government of India allocated Rs. 13,343 crores, and allocation for the Financial Year 2019-20 is to the tune of Rs 2,683 Crore because both of the diseases are causing huge losses (https://pib.gov.in/newsite/PrintRelease.aspx?relid=190624). As per the statement of the minister in the upper house, FMD and Brucellosis outbreaks and disease cases in the last three years were:















Nobody knows why these two official figures varied and you can’t question the authority for the disparity as they have hundreds of answers for the same. From the data given at different time and place even it is not possible to understand that who is telling truth and who is the liar.
More interesting facts are revealed under DADF Project: Brucellosis Control Programme headed by R Shome, M Nagalingam and P Roy at National Institute of Veterinary Epidemiology and Disease Investigation, Bengaluru (https://nivedi.res.in/sites/default/files/2019-03/NIVEDI_Annual_Report_2017-18.pdf), that Brucellosis prevalence is decreasing significantly in India over last one decade. Sero-prevalence of brucellosis from 2006 to 2010 was 9.4% and while from 2011 to 2017 it was just 5.9% only. This trend indicated that the disease may die soon in a decade or two automatically. Probably by 2025, India will be free of brucellosis as envisaged by the Government of India. Good luck to livestock owners.
In another report, the same Institute reported that the seroprevalence of brucellosis in animals has risen from 8% in 1994-2004 to 21% in 2004-05 and 22% in 2005-06 (PD-ADMAS, 2005-6).
Another department of the same ministry, the National Dairy Development Board speaks differently about the same disease, Brucellosis. Brucellosis is rampant in animals and humans in India and specifically in Gujrat where 27.5% of veterinarians of the state are positive for brucellosis and 16.1% and 19.6% of dairy animals of Kheda and Kutch districts (the hub of Gujrat Dairying) are positive for brucellosis (Rana, NDDB, 2018).
Day by day it is getting difficult to understand the actual burden of the disease because the jugglery of data appears to have only one aim, to create confusion and confusion only.


In 2015-16 the number of FMD cases was the least probably due to the Report on the Substandard quality of the FMD Vaccine reported in 2014-15 and vaccine producers might be conscious of the quality but now again the same.


What do the above figure and digits indicate?
1.       Outbreaks are now much bigger than used to be earlier affecting more animals, why? No investigation done despite the ongoing very dear FMD-CP for decades.
2.       Number of FMD cases is not decreasing despite spending about 500 crores every year in FMD-CP for decades, why? No investigation done despite the ongoing very dear FMD-CP for decades.
3.       FMD-CP is successful, how? Nobody knows and tried to understand the dilemma despite having >2500 cases of FMD yearly.
The bigger question is livestock economics told to people for FMD when in the last 11 years the average number of FMD cases is about 25000 and of which only less than 7% of animals died how the annual loss incurred was 20000 Crore every year? Does each of the animals suffering from FMD value at the rate of Rs. 80 Lacs? What kind of animals we are rearing for the cause of FMD, only the Ministry of DADF knows. To whom these people are bluffing, are they nationalist or antinational only PMO can decide.
Yet another problem of livestock economics is the loss figures not changing in the last decade but every year FMD-CP is declared successful and year after year budget is increased. Who may answer the question?

Now we come to another devastating disease of livestock in India causing loss of more than FMD (R. 20400 Crore per year), figures from the last 11 years indicated that on average about 121 cases of brucellosis are reported each year but it is necessary to run a National control program worth 13,343 crores even when the disease is reported just in six states of India (Assam, Karnataka, Kerala, Jammu & Kashmir, Rajasthan and Uttar Pradesh) in last three years (https://pib.gov.in/newsite/PrintRelease.aspx?relid=190624). Now the interesting facts about the disease are:
1.     The disease affects only those 121 animals every year which are valued at more than Rs. 180 Crore each (to cause the loss of Rs. 20400 Crore). In which elite dairy such animals are kept only DADF can reveal.
2.     Any livestock farmer hardly knows about the ambitious Brucellosis Control Program or testing of their animals but the program is running successfully to utilize Rs. 13,343 in the coming four years.
Though it is envisaged that by 2025 both Brucellosis and FMD will be out of India and by 2030 people may forget that there was any such disease after their eradication, I am sure that it will happen in the regime of the honest Government of India but fear that probably honest people will vanish by that time to see the outcome.
Will PMO-India question the bluffers and traitors of India sitting in Krishi Bhavan, New Delhi in comfortable chairs stabbing Mother India inside her womb for the last several decades through jugglery of fake data or cooked data or data created for predefined purposes? Certainly not, this letter of mine may also go into the trash (as several others have gone earlier) but due to my bad habit I may write one more and again one more.

 And finally see, how the case has been handled at PMO!!!!!!!
 And then I wrote!!!!  
How A grievance can be a closed case without taking action against the concerned. Is it the Nationalism of PMO India? I had a hope that responsible people bluffing India will be punished. Alas, Nothing changed.
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